How Pandemic will shape our near future?

Pandemic effects on our future

Our current condition on pandemic

You all would be thinking that, so many people are dead and it is the worst case scenario. I agree with you the range of scenarios sadly is quite large including that as we get into the fall. We have death rates that rival the worst what we had in a April time period and if you get a lot of young people infected eventually they will infect old people again. So you will get into the nursing homes the homeless shelters, the places where we have a lot of our deaths. The innovation track which you know probably will touch on diagnostic therapeutic vaccines there's good progress their but nothing that would fundamentally alter the fact that this fall in the world could be quite bad. That's worse than I would have expected a month ago. The degree to which we are back at high mobility not wearing masks and now the virus actually got into many cities that it hadn't been in before in a significant way.

Actually we are still not able to characterize who the super spreaders are in terms of, what that profile is?If we could identify them, they are responsible for the majority of transmission. A few people have very high viral loads but sadly we haven't figured that out this mode of transmission. If you are in a room and no body talks there's a way less of less transmission.

Mistake made by W.H.O.

W.H.O. did not advice people to wear masks taking away from frontline medical providers. All the experts feel bad that value of masks which ties back somewhat to the asymptomatic's. You know if people were very symptomatic like an Ebola you know it and you isolate and so you don't have a need for a mask like thing but in COVID-19  it is not like that. Some people say that it's a conspiracy of W.H.O. but it's not a conspiracy it's a mistake.

Vaccines

I would tell you that there three vaccines if they work the earliest

1. The Moderna, unfortunately it won't scale very easily.
2. Astra Zeneca, which comes from oxford
3. The Johnson and Johnson

Those are three early ones. We have animal data that look potentially good but not definitive particularly that it will on elderly. We will have human data over the next several months. Vaccines trail is confirmed at three phases and in the third phase we need to really look at all the safety profile. But I am not that optimistic that it will be start manufacturing at the end of this year, it will take time.

Now the question arises that, if a vaccine is manufactured than which country will get it first? There are negotiations taking place right now on this to get factories that will be dedicated to the countries which are poorer. The very scalable constructs that include Astra Zeneca and johnson&johnson will focus on those which are inexpensive. In the constructs of vaccines it has a high failure rates, so it is very difficult for vaccine to be construct at the end of this year.  

Good side effects of this pandemic

What if, I would tell you that there is a good side of corona virus. Lockdown, Health problem, food crisis, all of this feels like a big dark cloud, but there is a silver lining. I can explain this silver lining to you by a number that is 86400. What if, I start giving you 86400 rupees everyday from today till you die. There's only one catch that no matter what you do at midnight I will take all that money away and give you a fresh slot of 86400 rupees, what will you do? Will you waste it or invest it? the answer seems obvious, you will invest it. The answer is easy because you can actually see the money. But there is one currency that you can't see but it is more valuable than money that is time. Everyday we get a gift of 86400 seconds that's 1440 minutes 24 hours. During this lockdown we are by default saving a lot of time. So you can utilize that time in a good way.